Desertification trends following the cessation of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2)

Abstract

Desertification remains a global issue, particularly in arid and semi-arid regions, where changes in atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) influence plant-water dynamics. This study examines the impact of CO2 stabilization and decline on desertification risk using climate model data from the Zero Emissions Commitment Model Intercomparison Project. Data from multiple Earth system models were analyzed under two scenarios: the 1pctCO2 experiment, which simulates a gradual CO2 increase followed by stabilization, and businessas-usual scenarios with continued emissions. Results indicate that while CO2 fertilization initially increases plant water use efficiency, a subsequent decline in CO2 concentration increases water stress, particularly in dryland regions. The study further reveals that differences in various variables between the two scenarios may affect ecosystem stability. These findings suggest that desertification risk may become a more prevalent issue even after emissions cease, highlighting the need for adaptive land management strategies in a post-emissions world.